Brig (Ret'd) Jeff Little OBE MBA CGIA FSyl https://citysecuritymagazine.com/author/jeff-little/ News and advice for security professionals Thu, 07 Nov 2024 13:06:39 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Logo-Square-300x300-1.jpg Brig (Ret'd) Jeff Little OBE MBA CGIA FSyl https://citysecuritymagazine.com/author/jeff-little/ 32 32 Revolutionise our approach to security technology https://citysecuritymagazine.com/editors-choice/opinion-security-technology-shift-needed/ Mon, 17 Sep 2018 00:00:04 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=5278 A paradigm shift in our approach to security technology is needed… and quickly In…

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A paradigm shift in our approach to security technology is needed… and quickly

In light of current heightened international tensions and increasing threats from cybercrime, a call to action from Jeff Little for a revolution in the security sector’s approach to developing and using technology.

As I write this copy, our National Cyber Security Centre experts are warning of the risk of a retaliatory cyber-attack by the Russian state. This follows the UK’s involvement in the air strikes on Syrian chemical weapons sites over the weekend of 14/15 May 2018.

On 27 October last year we experienced the first effects of the ‘Wannacry’ attack on our NHS IT systems. This was a relatively unsophisticated operation, but many NHS systems were found to be outdated in terms of security software and were poorly protected – major lessons to be learned. It is only a matter of time before a crippling attack takes place on other elements of the Critical National Infrastructure.

Be prepared for further attacks

The importance of having reliable back-up systems and manual reversionary modes has never been so starkly evident. Contingency planning and crisis management is taken seriously in many well-informed sectors, but others remain dangerously exposed and un-rehearsed in their response to major incidents.  We are likely to see a continuance of the terror attacks of 2017 in response to the new wave of bombing.

The risk of state sponsorship of such acts, by either Iran or Russia, is now high. President Putin has already crossed yet another ‘red line’ in the sand by allegedly allowing the deployment of a military-grade nerve agent on the streets of a peaceful Wiltshire city.  In the past, several terror groups have openly indicated their intent to fire a CBRN weapon such as a radiological dispersal device (RDD) and that desire must now be taken more seriously. There are significant readiness and equipment lessons to be learned from the Skripal incident in Salisbury.  Not least that the UK has disbanded its one and only nuclear, biological, chemical (NBC) defence regiment, based on 3 RTR, whilst Russia has recently formed an additional ten new and well equipped such regiments.

Learn the lessons from 2017

The five extremist attacks of 2017 marked a milestone for the UK’s response to terrorism.  The way in which the police and other emergency services dealt with the Borough Market incident on 3 June was quite exemplary and it is to be hoped that the officers involved will be commended and decorated for their outstanding courage and response. But there are still lessons to be learned. In a major and exceptional incident, simply religiously adhering to SOPs and protocols is just not enough.

Develop technology to improve communications

The reports into almost every major disaster in the UK for the past 40 years have highlighted problems with communications and this highlights a malaise and lack of creativity and innovation regarding technology which is apparent across the leadership of the security sector in both the public and private domains.  For the past six years, this author has argued that a technological revolution in security has been under way, happening much more by accident than by design. This revolution takes place 30 years after the military underwent a similar such change which fundamentally altered the balance of warfare. This paradigm shift was especially visible in command, control and communications (C3).

A forum to oversee technological advance

Within the security sector, there is a lack of future threat assessment, requirements setting, pre-deployment trials and coordinated thinking in all areas.  What is now required is a holistic view of the industry, seen from an integrated technology angle and a knowledgeable, well informed body to coordinate and steer that integration. Many other sectors of industry and commerce are already well ahead of the security sector in the areas of robotics, drones and biometrics – an area where our industry should be to the fore.  Simply too many people claim that ‘it will never work’ and blame technological risk as an easy excuse not to innovate. Surely, we owe it to the public and the industry’s many clients to be more adventurous and more positive about the benefits of technology and to adopt a ‘can do’ attitude towards new capabilities?

There are one or two forward thinkers who share this view. One is Bob Forsyth of Kings Secure Technologies who recently said in his blog:

‘Our industry cannot sit back and wait to innovate: we should adopt an approach of excitement and practical implementation, trialling the new equipment in real environments to understand the need that may be required, making the technology stick in our world. The businesses that will be successful in our sector are those that get the balance right in adoption, trial and implementation, knowing that it may not always be successful but showing a clear resolve of new thinking.’

What is needed is a regular gathering of a security technology forum of clients, developers, users and service providers to produce a series of informed white papers outlining the future threats and the capabilities required to defeat such threats.

These groups have been common in the defence industry for many years and the security sector should now follow this lead. The group needs to move at commercial pace.  What is abundantly clear is that the law and regulations have failed to keep pace with the advance of the use of technology and social media platforms by extremists and criminals.

Security Ambassadors to lead the debate

We now need to appoint a cohort of security ambassadors to inform and to stimulate debate, to win the political and ethical high ground in the minds of the public and to inform the press of development and advances. These ambassadors should include scientists, police officers, politicians and professionals from the private sector, with their aim being to ensure timely and coordinated action to achieve, for example, the sharing of data and intelligence across traditional boundaries. This data sharing is the key to so many intelligence-led operations and the interdiction of extremist plans prior to them being brought to fruition. It is still not being achieved after so many years trying.

There is a need to discuss the moral and political implications of new security technology in advance of its deployment and not afterwards. One example is facial recognition systems, already being deployed but with no written international standard or code of practice and only recently the subject of debate in parliament. Robotics and Artificial Intelligence are the second examples where constructive debate is needed now, prior to deployment of these new capabilities.  It will not be too long before the first security robot will be fielded in the role of 21st century night watchman.  How will it be equipped?  What sensors will it carry?  Will it have the authority or the right to detain or disable a criminal before a conventional human response arrives? Will Isaac Asimov’s three Rules of Robotics still apply?

Crime and Violence on the increase

After falling significantly for many years, crime and the use of violence is now on the increase in all areas – none more so than retail business crime, where shoplifting causes losses of over £700m per year – and the true figure likely to be much more.  Those who advocate that there is no correlation between the loss of 21,000 police officers and the rise in crime are simply out of touch with reality.  Law enforcement today is required to deal with a new range of crimes such as historical sex abuse cases, filling gaps in the health and social services sectors and a much higher emphasis on CT policing.  The net result is that many ‘low level’ crimes will not be investigated and a continuous downward spiral will result, with the public becoming increasingly disillusioned with the forces of law and order.  This is potentially most dangerous. Unless technology is mobilised and enabled to fill some of these gaps then I fear that this spiral will only worsen at a time when our country desperately needs security, stability and coherence to attract inwards investment in its exposed post-European divorce epoch.

A new and more integrated approach towards the technologies and skills needed to halt this slide into darkness is required. Creative and innovative minds are urgently needed to bring the power of science and technology to bear.  At a crucial time in the nation’s history, national resilience and emergency planning staff have been drastically cut back.  Not pessimism, but fact, and a line in the sand must be drawn now.

Brig (Ret’d) J (Jeff) Little OBE MBA CGIA FSyl

Co-Founder and Director, TriTectus Ltd.

www.tritectus.com

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Broken Windows Theory: the role of retail crime https://citysecuritymagazine.com/security-management/retail-security-broken-windows-theory/ Mon, 06 Aug 2018 08:02:17 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=4994 Retail Crime Contributing to the Broken Windows Theory? Every year we are informed that…

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Retail Crime Contributing to the Broken Windows Theory?

Every year we are informed that retail crime has once again risen by a significant percentage. The British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) annual retail crime survey for 2016 reports £660m as being the total cost of retail crime, 3.6 million offences, and a 40% increase in violence and abuse against staff over last year’s figure. The last point is particularly disturbing.

Anyone who is aggressive towards retail staff, often young people experiencing their first job experience, should be immediately and unconditionally banned from the store concerned and prosecuted to the maximum extent of the law.

One thing that we can be quite sure of is that figures are not fully representative of the true size of the problem. It is only the visible part of the huge iceberg above the water. The true figure will turn out to be considerably more than the total reported.

Turning a blind eye

Many supermarkets will turn a blind eye to the theft of a single bottle of spirits worth £25 – it is simply not worth the paperwork and process required to pursue a case against an individual for such a seemingly small amount. Or is it?

Firstly, it will certainly not be the offender’s first or only crime. He or she will have taken many more bottles of spirits from other shops and stores nearby – and they know that the chances of getting caught are very small.

Secondly, if they are caught, they are aware that punishment will be very minor. No magistrate is going to send someone to prison for the theft of a £25 bottle of spirits. A caution is probably the most likely outcome.

But the result of this acceptance of the loss undoubtebly influences offenders’ attitudes to crime overall. The so called “broken windows” theory evolved in 1982 in the USA. It postulates that a building in a city centre with one or two broken windows will soon have many more broken windows as vandals see that they can get away with smashing more and more and not be caught.

Eventually, squatters may occupy the building and it may even be set on fire by arsonists who see a soft, unprotected target, ripe for exploitation.

Broken windows theory

Police Chief Bill Bratton, who served two terms as New York City Police Commissioner, was heavily influenced by the broken windows theory. Bratton went on to further the idea that by demanding a no-tolerance approach to minor crime such as drunkenness in the streets, anti-social behaviour, minor theft and other petty offences, then crime overall would be reduced. Despite significant criticism of the man and his business linkages, crime figures were significantly reduced year on year whenever and wherever he was serving as chief officer.

Goodness knows what Mr Bratton would make of the scenes of drunkenness and debauchery now played out regularly every Friday and Saturday night in towns and city centres across the UK following the government’s liberalisation of drinking hours.

The BRC report puts the problem back into the lap of police forces and says that police need a new strategy to deal with retail crime.

The police have lost 22,000 officers under the policy of the current government. They face a major increase in the threat from terrorism. They are constantly tasked to examine historical sex crimes dating back over 50 years. Overall reported crime is up by 10%. The theft of a £25 bottle of spirits is, sadly, not going to be high on their agenda.

Responding to retail crime

The answer to retail crime lies firmly in the hands of the retail industry and the security companies who they employ to protect their premises. New surveillance lenses, cameras and recorders now operate at high definition (HD) level – there is no excuse for not recognising or identifying offenders as they enter a shop premises.

Facial recognition is now coming into its own and software analytics can be set to alarm as soon as a known offender steps foot on the premises.

The technology is now there to alter the balance of advantage away from the offender and back to the retailer and to the rule of law. A no-tolerance attitude is needed to arrest and prosecute those found stealing goods. A more visible security presence is needed. In some stores and supermarkets this is immediately visible with a uniformed security officer at the entrance to the store backed up by plain clothes officers inside the premises. Needless to say, crime is far lower in stores if this is the case.

In an age of austerity, industry needs to take more responsibility for its self-protection and invest in the devices, policies and personnel needed to achieve this aim.

Jeff Little, OBE, Chief Executive

Security Expert Online

www.securityexpert.online

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Security technology: need for further development https://citysecuritymagazine.com/risk-management/opinion-security-technology/ Tue, 24 Jul 2018 10:05:22 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=4806 Security technology and the need for further development The technology available to the security…

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Security technology and the need for further development

The technology available to the security sector provides far more capability than 10 years ago. Improved sensors offer a 24-hour surveillance capability with infra-red turning darkness into light.

Observation of premises via tablets and smart- phones is taken for granted. Several more sciences are now coming of age including facial recognition, video analytics and online crime reporting. The technologies seen in feature films such as ‘Enemy of the State’ will soon become reality. The military underwent a revolution in the 1980s with SMART, precision guided weapons, STEALTH concealment and TI sights. The security industry is about to experience such a paradigm shift forward. This transmogrification will be needed to balance the new tranche of risks presented by the Internet of Things, robotics and AI.

CCTV systems

Two things may be missing which may lead to sub-optimal exploitation of these opportunities. The first is sharing of imagery from CCTV systems. The UK is the most surveilled nation following the IRA actions towards the end of the last century. There are literally thousands of cameras abounding roads and inner-cities. The problem is that few of them are joined up. They are unable to provide the complete situational awareness required to shift the balance of crime and safety in favour of the forces of law. Joined- up thinking and cooperation at local level could really move the advantage away from the shoplifter, the rapist or the terrorist.

Underpinning such a physical system needs to be a national digital database for wanted criminals and vehicles. This includes those who present a threat to security and who could be deterred from committing their felonies knowing that they are going to be detected and recognised by contemporary software.  With fewer police officers following austerity, that numerical gap must be filled by better use of surveillance and intelligent software. Over the next few years, starting in 2018, facial recognition on a mass scale aimed at low-level crime is going to be rolled out in businesses large and small, powered by systems like Facewatch to provide the appropriate watchlists. As most terrorists are ‘home grown’ and generate their revenues from petty crime, it is likely that making crime harder on the ground will push them to take more risks – currently petty crime carries almost no risk to it due to lack of police resources and lack of intelligent cameras.

New capabilities

The second factor is the push for new capabilities, which drives R&D and investment.  During the Cold War, the Soviet threat drove demand for new capability. The USSR came up with a new type of armour. The West needed a solution and came up with a requirement to defeat the armour, and industry developed the tandem warhead missile. There are myriads of examples where a military requirement inspired scientific industry to generate new weapons; a more recent example was ‘Wheelbarrow’ – the EOD robot designed to defeat vehicle borne IEDs. So, let us have a debate and drive, nay demand, R&D to meet our requirements instead of it simply offering us their solutions.  Here are a few starters. Please join the debate!

So, responding to the very latest threat, how do we bring to a stop a weaponised vehicle, driven by a deranged individual, crashing into a crowd of people? Clearly, hostile vehicle mitigation systems cannot cover each location where crowds gather and mass. There needs to be a device which can be used to stop the vehicle’s engine and apply the brakes in time to prevent a mass casualty situation. And there is simply not 2 or 3 years available to research this one – it is the equivalent of a military ‘urgent operational requirement’ (UOR) and it is needed now.

Drone threats

Next, drone threats. ISIL recently launched a weaponised drone at attacking US and Iraqi forces near Mosul. Simple to procure, such weapons will inevitably be fielded in Europe at some stage. Launched into a crowd at a sports event or concert, half a dozen such machines could cause great loss of life.

Detecting individuals

Thirdly, I want to detect individuals carrying weapons or explosives much earlier in airport terminals – in fact, as soon as they approach and arrive at the terminal, and not just after they have passed through the security screen. There is a real challenge for technologists to get their teeth into.

Passwords

Fourth, passwords are rapidly becoming outmoded and will need to be replaced by multi-level biometrics including the fingerprint, the voice and the face or iris. So, what next can we scan that will give us the unique access and protection from the hacker?

Video analytics

Fifth is video analytics. We have already spent time looking at gait analysis, mapping gestures and behaviours that indicate a high-risk profile for individuals. Is there a capability to do likewise with vehicle characteristics? Is higher risk profiling possible through hire cars and stolen vehicles and the way that they are driven? Once identified and matched to elevated risk areas, e.g. winter markets in Germany or sightseers in Westminster, we may be able to work with city master planners and physical security manufacturers to limit risk to the public through design.

The sixth area that keeps us awake at night is security on the transport systems, rail and tube. We have an opportunity with Crossrail to influence some form of explosives identification on entry, albeit detrimental to passenger flow and possibly too late in the game. Any more bids?

Jeff Little, OBE

Chief Executive, Security Expert OnLine

With acknowledgements for information to Chris Knights and Simon Gordon.

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ISIL returning fighters: dangerous times in 2017 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/counter-terrorism/strategy-isil-2017/ Mon, 23 Jul 2018 09:40:45 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=4514 ISIL in retreat …but now an injured and more dangerous opponent? When the self…

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ISIL in retreat …but now an injured and more dangerous opponent?

When the self designated Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), also known as Daesh or ISIS, first came to prominence after its dramatic capture of Iraq’s second city of Mosul in June 2014, there were gloomy predictions about a generational struggle against a new and highly volatile enemy.

A terror group had finally emerged which held ground and had declared a new caliphate.  ISIL is a terror group which produced oil and sold it and had access to heavy weapons in abundance, left by fleeing Iraqi army troops running away for their lives.

A Murderous Gang

ISIL is an extremist organisation which seemed able to unite together other disparate extremist groups from across the Middle East, Africa and Asia and gain their allegiance whilst sheltering behind a false shield of Islamic religious philosophy. ISIL is, in fact, a murderous gang who casually beheaded and crucified their enemies or burned them to death in a cage before a video camera.

A group founded in 1999 with real reach, finance and leadership under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sitting in Raqqah – his Syrian headquarters.

Far from Beaten

But now the situation is radically changing as Arab forces, led by re-invigorated Iraqi army troops, who are supplied and trained by the US, are taking back control over much of the ground lost to ISIL during their sweeping initial victories. We should beware; although ISIL is losing on the ground, due mainly to highly effective air supremacy and reconnaissance including UK Tornado and Typhoon fast jets operating from Cyprus, it is far from beaten.

We should be prepared for ISIL, in its pain and suffering, to now lash out against the West – an injured animal can be a very dangerous beast indeed.

Call to Arms for European Support

According to recent press reports, ISIL has now urged its supporters in the West to increase the tempo of their terror operations and ‘attack markets, roads and clubs’ across the continent of Europe. Abuu al-Hassan al-Muhajar is the new ISIL spokesman and he has ordered his troops to ‘burn the ground under their feet’. He has focussed his calls to arms on European supporters and the cells which the group claim to have lain dormant within the continent. If 2016 was anything to go by with its numerous attacks, then 2017/18 could be equally, if not more challenging.

Let us not forget so easily the events of the previous year in towns like Verviers, at the Charlie Hebdo offices in Paris, in Copenhagen, in Belgium, in Tunisia, in Chattanooga, in Mali, Turkey, Burkina Faso and on the Ivory Coast.

Unprecedented Threat

The head of MI6, Alex Younger recently described the threat from terrorism as now being ‘unprecedented’. Younger went on to say that 12 viable plots against the UK had been disrupted since June 2013. His words should be a timely reminder that we remain on a very high state of alert and that watchfulness and situational awareness must be orders of the day.

One way for the extremists to put their plans into action would be to mobilise the hundreds of European citizens who opted to leave their homes, their jobs and their families havingbeen seduced by the promises of a skilled ISIL propaganda and recruitment campaign to join the battle in the Middle East.

It is estimated that at least 800 men and women have chosen to leave their European homeland over the past 5 years and to spend their time fighting in Syria or Iraq, either with the so called ‘Islamic State’, al Qaeda or with some other extremist rebel group. This number should be set against the total number of foreigners to have followed this path, reported by the CIA to be over 20,000 but less than 32,000.

Returning Fighters

Some of these people will have already been killed in battle. Some will remain in the region and continue their fight despite the defeats and loses now being inflicted by Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces. Others will return back to their home state, and it is this group of so called ‘returners’ who are of particular concern and who are the subject of this article.

This group of ex-fighters will find it physically difficult to simply get back into their country of departure and try to resume their former existences. Many are already well known to the border authorities and national police services and will simply be intercepted and detained as they attempt to pass through air or sea ports on their way home. Over 60 have already been arrested trying to re-enter the UK. It is to be hoped that this group can be successfully de-radicalised and re-integrated into society, although this will not be an easy task.

We must assume, however, that a proportion will have managed to bypass border security checks. They may have simply obtained new passports or otherwise will have re-entered the state illegally or in disguise and set themselves up with a new identity and a new life. Such individuals will have had considerable, but not necessarily great training, but more importantly, they will have had front line combat experience in a savage and enduring civil war; they are battle hardened.

Tactical Experience of Urban Warfare

These returning fighters will have been highly motivated and radicalised in order for them to have made the decision to go to war in the first place. Although they may not have been particularly well trained in military disciplines, they will have developed practical skill-at-arms and be familiar with a range of weapons such as hand grenades and rifles, ammunitions and explosives. They will have tactical experience of urban warfighting, ambushes, sniping and the setting of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). They will possess the self-confidence to carry out operations either on their own as a lone wolf or as part of a group of marauding armed terrorists acting on orders from the parent organisation. They will already have been bloodied in battle and will inevitably have experienced death and destruction on a grand scale, such as in the city of Aleppo. But they will also have developed a degree of leadership, escape and evasion, fire and manoeuvre tactics, concealment and survival skills simply in order to have remained alive in such a hostile environment.

Sleepers Awaiting Orders

According to Spanish intelligence and security sources, they are now ‘sleepers’ awaiting orders, for example from al-Muhajar to conduct a strike against their departure state and they will be provided with the required weapons and logistics by their parent organisation’s support networks.

Security services will already have good intelligence about their activities; however, the ever increasing list of suspects who need to be monitored and watched on a 24-hour-per-day basis will continue to stretch the national HUMINT (HUMan INTelligence) resources available despite the additional funding provided by the government. ELINT (ELectronic INTelligence) must be used sensibly and effectively to fill this gap and it is essential that politicians, of all colours, realise the vital intelligence information which can be gathered by using electronic metadata and telephone intercepts to add to the rich picture of information essential to curtail and contain the activities of such dangerous and potentially lethal groups.

Learning the Lessons

There are lessons to be learned from recent conflicts overseas where British forces have been committed to battle, in both Iraq and Afghanistan, with their hands tied behind their backs by political constraints on theatre manpower levels, unsuitable equipment and tactics. We must not hinder the mission of the security services in a similar manner. Nor must we allow elongated enquiries, at vast cost to the taxpayer and to service morale, caused by vexatious allegations and ambulance-chasing lawyers, to scar the lives of brave servicemen, police and security service officers.

It must also be recognised that austerity reductions have caused a major drop in the number of officers available to police our streets. Conventional crime, which has been in decline for the past decade, is now starting to rise once more and this must ring alarm bells during a period of such uncertainty caused by Brexit. It is a combat indicator of the wrong kind!

Continued ISIL Support

We should not write off ISIL just because it is now losing the battle for ground in Iraq. Its leadership regime has plenty of other failed states in which to establish a power base should that become necessary. Neither should we assume that the temporary alliances between the forces now pushing back ISIL’s boundaries will bring peace to that troubled region. The relations between the Kurds and the Iraqi army are only good whilst they are advancing. Once their mission is achieved, they will inevitably turn back upon each other in their ongoing fight for control of Northern Iraq.

ISIL has supporters in many lands, including Afghanistan and even the Balkans. It has a sophisticated recruitment and public relations operation and makes good use of social media and the dark web to spread its murderous message. Although the number of recruits coming forwarded to join ISIL is now falling as ground is lost, a switch in its centre of gravity to a more benign environment and a more secure home base may see recruit numbers rise once more.

There is no doubt that once its current battle is lost, it will re-group and re-shape its strategy and its tactics. It will adapt and evolve into a new species which may be even more focussed and aggressive than the last. A more aggressive and extremist White House may encourage more support for a cause which holds the West in contempt and has sworn to destroy democracy.

President Donald Trump’s policies and hardtalk may easily and inadvertently act as a recruiting sergeant for the organisation hell- bent on the destruction of the Great Satan.

Only time will tell, but 2017 and beyond threaten to be dangerous times and there are stormy seas ahead.

Let us not forget that life under ISIS has been particularly barbaric for the people of Mosul since it fell in June 2014. They have lived under constant threat, with no social services, utilities or medical help for over 2 years.

ISIL has taken up to 5,000 Yazidi women as slaves and used rape and violence against them on a merciless scale. ISIL has shown no respect for the accepted conventions of war and its leaders must be brought to justice at some time in the future.

In the meantime, vigilance is essential and cooperation between the public and private sector has never been more needed. The beast will not die easily.

Jeff Little OBE

Chief Executive, Security Expert OnLine

www.securityexpert.online

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Security in the Middle East in 2014 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/counter-terrorism/security-middle-east-2014/ Thu, 12 Jul 2018 07:54:37 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=3272 Is the Middle East moving towards failed region status? “Just as your missiles continue…

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Is the Middle East moving towards failed region status?

“Just as your missiles continue to strike our people, our knife will continue to strike the necks of your people.” ISIL murderer’s warning following the recent beheading of US journalist Steven Sotloff.

Events in the Middle East over the summer of 2014 have moved at breathtaking speed and have been quite extraordinary. Whilst media focus was upon the Syrian civil war and the Israeli/Gaza struggle, forces of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) crossed the Syrian border into Iraq. ISIL took control of swathes of land in a country already divided by the inept leadership of ex-Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. ISIL declared the formation of a new Muslim ‘caliphate’. This move should come as no surprise to the security or intelligence community as it is exactly what the jihadist movement have been telling us they would do for over 10 years. The sickening videos of the beheading of 2 American journalists, James Foley and Steven Sotloff, and British aid worker David Haines, have been met with global disgust. As I write, the life of a second Briton hangs precariously in the balance.

Behind these bloody ISIL demonstrations sits a swathe of mass shootings, executions, crucifixions and ethnic cleansing on an industrial scale. ISIL is the only terrorist group to physically hold large areas of ground and to dominate the lives of over 6 million people.  They have financial income from the sale of oil and profits from ransom money. They have captured modern weapons left behind when the Iraqi army simply fled the battlefield upon the ISIL approach. They have finance, logistical support, access to modern technology and contemporary weapons. But most dangerous of all, they are extremely violent, have no respect for human life and are quite prepared to die for their cause whilst inflicting mass casualties upon their enemies.

ISIL is an international fighting force with potential to reach-back violently into the heart of each and every nation state from where they have recruited their fanatical mercenary troops. Their use of social media has been skilful and professional. This puts the organisation into a different league from any other terror organisation previously encountered. The estimated 500-plus radicalised British men and women thought to be fighting in the region are only one piece in the complex jigsaw of Middle East politics which now directly threatens national security.  The death-head of ISIL must be destroyed if the terror threat is to be contained. This is, however, a battle which could take many years, even decades, to win.

Suffering in the Middle East

Three years ago we thought that the uprisings known as the Arab Spring would spark a wave of democracy and freedom for the 350 million Arab citizens who have suffered so long under the strict despotic regimes of their dictatorial masters. How wrong we were. How naive of us to think that the Western liberal democratic model could simply be spawned so easily within such tenuous national boundaries and complex societies. The revolutions quickly rotted and Egypt now finds itself back under the leadership of a military figure following the dethroning of Mohammed Morsi. Post-Qaddafi Libya is breaking up at the hands of warring militiamen, and Western workers have beaten a hasty withdrawal, with the assistance of a Royal Navy warship. Yemen is a complete mess. Syria and Iraq are in danger of being destroyed piecemeal. Tensions surrounding Israel and the Palestinians are high and that conflict has the potential to spark a wider conflagration. Tunisia is perhaps the one remaining light showing true democratic potential. The Arab region as a whole is dominated by conflict, poor living conditions, a wretched lack of leadership, and is devoid of the will to embrace change or to improve the future security of the populace.

Israel’s operations in Gaza to smash the tunnels dug beneath its borders and relieve the pressure from Hamas-launched rockets may have already sown the seeds of the next intifada, with the much talked about ‘2-state solution’ nowhere in sight. Iraq is well on the way to becoming a failed state despite the millions of dollars worth of investment, military equipment and training invested there by the Western Powers over the past 10 years. The bloodthirsty and vile extremists of ISIL, or simply IS as it now has re-titled itself, have made the border between Iraq and Syria effectively redundant and are in danger of fracturing both states. The Kurdish faction adds to the complexity in the region and threatens to involve Turkey’s south-eastern border. ISIL leaders have no hesitation in committing genocide and murder in either of the 2 former states it now claims to occupy – and they are clearly keen to extend their carnage and destruction to the streets of New York, London or Berlin. The West cannot and must not ignore their threats and offensive, aggressive action is needed to confront the threat – passive defensive measures will not suffice.

International support

The meeting of foreign ministers held in Paris on 15 September claimed to have the support of over 40 states, creating a coalition of the willing to destroy the ISIL threat. President Obama gave permission to extend US strikes into Syria airspace and the first bombing missions in direct support of Iraqi ground forces took place on 16 September. But airpower alone cannot and will not dislodge ISIL and cannot re-occupy ground. Only the presence of infantry soldiers can seize and regain the territory lost to the Islamist forces. Western nations only just recovering from draining battles in Afghanistan and Iraq are understandably reluctant to put their soldiers’ boots back on the ground in any large numbers. However, the strategy of proxy war fought by engaging coalition Arab states to commit their land forces to the battle, albeit supported by western-generated air forces, is high risk and has no guarantee of success.

Behind the scenes, the factions are becoming more and more polarised and a trio of powerful, shadowy actors are pulling the all important strings. Iran has become the de facto supporter of the Shia providing financial and hardware support. Saudi Arabia remains Iran’s arch rival whilst backing the Sunni and powering some of the numerous rebel factions fighting to overthrow the Syrian regime. Russia stubbornly remains allied to President Bashar al Assad, propping up the ailing regime with weapons and enabling him to maintain at least tactical battlefield supremacy whilst that historic land is torn asunder by the fighting. With these 3 shadowy powerbrokers calling the shots, peace looks less and less likely. The House of Saud is terrified of an ISIL thrust southwards towards the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina.

At the same time, the United States of America, once the single dominant and powerful player in the region, but now almost self sufficient in terms of energy, thanks to shale gas deposits, has been notably absent until the emergence of the Islamic State threat.  President Obama has adopted an essentially isolationist policy which could well come back to bite America very hard in the medium future. Its former regional allies are desperate for a new US administration who will provide leadership and at least engage diplomatically, if not militarily, with their former partners. In the meantime, evil players will enthusiastically seek to fill the vacuum left by an untimely US disengagement. The United Nations, with its Security Council split on an outdated East/West axis, will remain impotent thus further reducing the options for constructive dialogue. Other traditional Western allies in Europe are finding their backs against the wall over Ukraine. Financial sanctions against Russia, upon whom many Europeans depend for their essential gas supplies, are wrestling continuing financial challenges and are steadfastly avoiding taking sides. They remain silent despite the high degree of humanitarian suffering being inflicted.

So where does all of this leave the region and the rest of the world?

For the moment, the nation state should survive as the accepted currency of primary legitimate identity in the region. However, the very identities of many states are now under threat and at risk of failure as fierce social and ideological forces are being unleashed. Arabs tired of suppression may well seek new options for protest as their first round of revolutionary seed has fallen upon stony ground. The ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s declaration of a new global caliphate brings a new angle, if not a new ideological dimension to the term ‘non-state actor’. The main risk of such breakdown has to be the loss of state- controlled weapon systems. The proliferations of such systems, including MANPAD surface-to-air weapons, across the terrorist domain is highly consequential. Access to a small quantity of radioactive matter liberated when ISIL captured Mosul University is also a concern as al Qaida always had a stated CBRN ambition which one day may come to fruition, in the US or Europe, via a dirty bomb. Whether other radical groups around the globe will rally to the ISIL call for jihad remains to be seen. The group must now be considered as a clear and present danger, as credible, if not more radical and bloodthirsty, as al Qaida ever was.

The United States and her Western allies must now address this threat head-on with the intent on containing, delaying and ultimately degrading ISIL’s fighting capability. This will require diplomatic, financial, political as well as military commitments. Having already expended much of their moral capital in Iraq in 2003 and more recently in Afghanistan, there is little voter appetite for further costly armed force commitment. However, with the failure of diplomacy and the concept of ‘soft-power’ being rendered irrelevant by global bullies such as Putin, Assad and Baghdadi, the West could now come to regret its silent stance – ironic at a time when the results of previous appeasement policies are at the forefront of people’s minds as we mark the centenary of the outbreak of the ‘Great War’.

The solution to the Middle East conundrum will not be decided in the Middle East region.  The forces of history are moving too quickly and whilst we in the West may be good at identifying the lessons of history, re-learning them is a different matter altogether.

A number of things need to happen if peace is to be re-established. Washington has to re-engage with its previous partners in the region and seek to regain stability by leadership of a strong fighting coalition force.  Putin’s Russia has to stop trying to recreate outdated Cold War animosities and realise her new obligations and responsibilities. The major Arab regional powers must set aside their differences and work together before the Arab race is reduced to ruins. They will not do so without assistance and encouragement and perhaps even a degree of threat.

The consequences for failure are dire.

The world does not need a failed region.

Jeff Little, OBE MBA CGIA FSyI FICPEM

High Velocity Management and Consultants

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The siege of Mecca: origin of contemporary terrorism https://citysecuritymagazine.com/counter-terrorism/siege-mecca-origin-contemporary-terrorism/ Tue, 10 Jul 2018 09:41:04 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=3050 The origin of contemporary terrorism? Contemporary acts of terrorism may take many forms. The…

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The origin of contemporary terrorism?

Contemporary acts of terrorism may take many forms. The phenomenon has transmogrified over the past 40 years from aircraft hijacks through to suicide bombing and now remotely detonated vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Terror tactics are even now developing. It is likely that the frequency of attacks may increase in the future but that these may be of a less complex or less sophisticated nature. There again, perhaps cavity bombers, swarm attacks and cyber threats may represent the next iterations of the terrorist armoury as we approach the next decade of the 21st century.

Turning point

On Tuesday, 20th November 1979, the focus of the World’s media and diplomatic attention was very firmly centred upon the situation in Iran where the Tehran US Embassy hostage situation was about to enter its third week.

On that same morning, however, an event, arguably of even greater significance, took place in the holiest of all Islamic shrines, namely in the Grand Mosque in the city of Mecca, where the annual Hajj pilgrimage had just come to an end.

The date and timing of the event was even more significant as November 1979 was not only the start of the new year but also the new century of 1400 in the Islamic calendar.

This article will describe the events which began that day. The siege which took place during the following two weeks, and the bloodshed and carnage which followed as the situation was resolved, influenced the thinking of many, including one young man by the name of Osama Bin Laden.

Osama’s thinking had already been influenced by the teaching of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood, which had been welcomed into Saudi by the King following their rebellious efforts in Egypt. The siege was the first ever large scale significant jihadist action and saw the lighting of a fuse which ultimately resulted in the 9/11 atrocity and other terror attacks in Europe. It could thus be said to have ultimately spawned the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan where so many lives have now been lost.

Pilgrims in Mecca

Perhaps as many as 100,000 of the million or so pilgrims who had conducted their Hajj visit that year remained in Mecca after the end of the official pilgrimage period. These pilgrims wished to see in the New Year and indeed the new century.

As morning prayers began at the Grand Mosque at around 6 am it was noticed that some groups of pilgrims were carrying coffins. There was nothing unusual in this respect – many sought the blessings of the Imam for their dead relatives at this most holy of Islamic sites. What was not understood at the time was that these coffins in fact contained a variety of weapons, grenades and ammunition supplies which would fuel the bloody siege about to begin.

Launching war

This was a terror event aimed at launching the jihad or holy war against the Saudi state. It was staged in response to Saudi governmental acceptance of Western, predominantly American, infidels who were being allowed into the Kingdom in response to the discovery of 25% of the world’s oil reserves sitting below the Saudi desert.

The nominal excuse given for the siege was in fact quite bizarre. It was widely believed that the Mahdi, the saviour and redeemer, would at some time return to earth on God’s orders to lead the Muslim world in triumph. The leader of this uprising, Juhayman al Uteybi was a 43-year-old ultraconservative Bedouin and a retired corporal in the National Guard who took violent objection to the western presence and preached venomously against the government.

Juhayman was known as a troublemaker by the religious authorities and intelligence services but they failed to act until it was too late despite having had him arrested, questioned but subsequently released. Juhayman used the prophesy of the return to earth of the Mahdi as the catalyst for his assault but the links were tenuous in the extreme.

A young student in Juhayman’s circle of followers named Mohammed Abdullah al Qahtani was born in a settlement in Asir from where many of the 9/11 hijackers originated. Al Qahtani wrote poetry, he was pale skinned, had a red mark on his head and held the same name as the Prophet. He also had reason to hate the Saudi state after having had his fingernails pulled out by the police when he was falsely arrested for a theft he did not commit whilst working in a hospital. Some of Juhayman’s group, now hundreds strong, suggested that al Qahtani resembled the Mahdi in name and looks.

Many followers claimed to have had strange dreams and to have seen al Qahtani standing proudly in the Grand Mosque worshipped by thousands as being the saviour sent by God Himself.

Meanwhile, they began to improve their shooting and combat skills as they prepared for a showdown with the Saudi State using weapons and bullets purloined by Juhayman from the National Guard armouries.

Violence

Just as prayers were finishing on the morning of 20th November, the rebels opened their coffins and produced their weapons. Shots were fired – a grave and unprecedented sacrilege in the confines of the Grand Mosque. Militants armed with handguns and rifles appeared amongst the crowd. Two security police officers who tried to intervene were rapidly despatched and the siege was underway – the first of many lives had been lost. Al Qahtani’s father was accidentally shot dead by a ricocheting round. The gates to the Mosque had been locked and chained and the thousands of peace-loving pilgrims realised that they were now captives in an unfolding nightmare. Rebel snipers had taken up positions in the seven minarets located around the site giving them unprecedented fields of fire to quickly dominate the ground both inside and around the perimeter. They held a strong and almost impregnable position and had all the advantages of the defence. Speeches were made proclaiming the Saudi government illegitimate and al Qahtani was proclaimed as the God-sent saviour. Some of the pilgrims even believed what was announced. Others tried to flee in panic.

Police reinforcements

The Mecca police eventually arrived at the scene at around 8 am, some two hours after the shooting began. The single patrol vehicle was greeted by a hail of bullets, losing one officer immediately. A second larger patrol arrived an hour later and this expedition resulted in 8 fatalities and 36 wounded within seconds. The rebels had by this time begun to release the majority of the hostages – it took a whole day for them all to file out to freedom. The Imam of the Grand Mosque himself slipped out in disguise and raised the alarm by telephoning the Saudi King directly in Riyadh. A few hundred others, mainly Saudis, were held captive.

Police and military reinforcements began to arrive and a command post was established in a nearby hotel. Two senior Princes, namely Sultan and Nayef, took charge of the operation. A total communications blackout was imposed and no overseas calls could be made out of the Kingdom. The US immediately despatched two aircraft-carrier battle groups to the region. The rebels meanwhile hardened their position in the basement level galleries of the Mosque where food supplies had already been hidden. A wave of shock ran through the Muslim world. Iran added to the confusion by blaming the USA and Israel for the siege. The American embassy in Pakistan was attacked and set on fire trapping 137 staff in the basement who nearly perished.

The first real attempt to relieve the siege took place on the Wednesday night with artillery shelling and a ground assault by Special Security Forces led by Major Suleyman al Shaaman. His 30-man unit took a number of early casualties and when he was shot dead the assault fell flat after a few minutes and many soldiers were lost.

Further assaults

The next assault was spearheaded by the Saudi Army’s 6th Parachute Battalion from Tabuk, led by Colonel Homaid. The Colonel died in the first wave of the daylight attack on the Thursday and the operation turned into a massacre. The Interior Ministry declared that control had been regained. However, when the traditional Friday prayers broadcast from Mecca did not appear, the world knew this to be a lie.

The third assault was based on the Abdelaziz Armoured Brigade led by General Dhaheri, mounted in armoured personnel carriers packing TOW anti-tank missiles and heavy cannons and supported by F-5 fighter-bombers. The battle raged over Saturday and Sunday and the new Mahdi died in the firefight. The surface area of the Mosque was eventually recaptured after heavy fighting. But the rebels simply went firm in the labyrinthine basement-level galleries known as the Qaboo network, knuckled down and the battle was far from won.

The casualties

The Saudi military had by now taken substantial casualties and sought assistance from overseas. Commando groups were put on standby across the region including from Pakistan, Jordan and Morocco. Eventually a small French team from the GIGN counter-terrorist group was sent to Mecca. The team asked for a host of additional equipment including CB gas and this was delivered by air from France on 3rd December. Saudi troops using French equipment and tactics drilled into the basements and a fierce battle ensued.  The rebels fought hard but the stunning effect of the gas won the day. Two weeks after it began, the siege was finally over.

The Saudi authorities paraded the surviving rebels on state television and claimed relatively low casualties had been taken by the military. The official government figures quoted a death toll of 270. The French and other allies on the scene reported well over 1,000 had died and possibly many, many more. Following the debacle, much of the Saudi military hierarchy was removed and replaced.

First jihadist incident

In summary, this event was the first real jihadist incident and its location at the holiest shrine of a major global religion added extra significance. Its ramifications had a major effect on the Saudi people and leadership. The siege is not widely discussed in the Kingdom even today. The Bin Laden group were closely involved in construction work at the Mosque and Osama himself soon found himself in Afghanistan working for Saudi intelligence. One can only speculate as to the ramifications were such a siege to take place today with modern communications, social media and 24 hour news coverage. The global effects do not bear contemplation. For those wishing to know more about the incident, I can strongly recommend an excellent book entitled ‘The Siege of Mecca’ by Wall Street Times journalist Yaroslav Trifimov, published by Anchor Books. In addition, a visit to the website www.randomhouse.com to view a unique and fascinating set of declassified reports, signals and documents from pilots in the air and diplomats on the ground during the events reported. My interest in the incident comes from a visit to Riyadh when I met the very officer who masterminded the engineering efforts required to deliver the gas into the Qaboo and allow the assault teams to enter. He showed me the very plans and maps used for the assault.

Brig (Retd) Jeff Little

OBE MBA CGIA FSyI FICPEM

Consultant Director at House of Consultants

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Facewatch work to ensure security standards https://citysecuritymagazine.com/risk-management/facewatch-ensure-security-standards/ Tue, 10 Jul 2018 09:04:42 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=3016 Standards, standards, standards… Low level crime affects us all and it can be very…

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Standards, standards, standards…

Low level crime affects us all and it can be very upsetting in nature to the victim.

Losing a wallet or handbag, a briefcase or a laptop can be distressing, but can also have consequences for security and identity fraud if not swiftly dealt with. Often these items are removed from us at social events and when one is relaxing after a hard day at the office – our guard can be down and crooks are adept at exploiting our vulnerabilities.

Impact of financial austerity

From 2014 onwards, law enforcement resources will be at a premium. Financial austerity measures will bite hard and some low-level crime events may be given lower priority as manpower and facilities are stretched. A system which makes reporting and recording of such crime events simple, low cost and autonomous should be welcomed by all involved – except for the perpetrators!

The police service will not have to attend, take statements or collect video imagery evidence from the scene – it will all be sent to them. When faced with overwhelming visual evidence many thieves will simply give a guilty plea, thus saving huge amounts of court time and money. Indeed, video images should nowadays be seen alongside other key evidence sources such as DNA and fingerprints. There are strict rules and standards for how these latter sources are handled – similar handrails and procedures will be needed for Facewatch evidence handling and disposal.

Standard certifications

The NSI is the premier certification body (CB) in the UK security and fire sector. NSI’s expertise covers alarm systems, access control, CCTV and alarm receiving centres (ARCs) which essentially require certification in order to achieve police response to alarm activation. NSI’s manned guarding audit domain includes such disciplines as static site security, close protection services, door supervision, cash and valuables in transit (CViT) as well as key-holding and security screening.

Facewatch

The relationship between Facewatch and NSI is therefore logical and symbiotic. Both strive to help defeat the criminal and support the police. Both see the value of technology, especially when that technology is packaged into a system which supports and strengthens the legal process. Both want to see better quality of CCTV imagery than is provided by some systems currently in service.

So the first and most elemental linkage will see the development of an e-learning course package directed towards a variety of key Facewatch stakeholders. In conjunction with e-learning 24/7, on-line training will be made available to all those who will operate the system from the very end-user who interfaces with the victim through to the police officer who ultimately processes the report and begins the search for the criminal. This training is a key element in confidence building and ensuring a common standard of operation across geographical and operational boundaries.

Next, NSI and Facewatch are working towards the production of a code of practice for the system which will bring discipline, alignment and provide the glue which will hold the system together and give it further credibility in the eyes of the judicial authorities. The linkage of technology, standards, creativity and certification is a most powerful model and we are confident that Facewatch will make a major contribution to crime reduction and successful prosecution as it is rolled out across an ever increasing user base.

Jeff Little

Chief Executive

NSI

www.nsi.org.uk

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Strategic shocks: an assessment of international risk https://citysecuritymagazine.com/risk-management/strategic-shocks-an-assessment-of-international-risk/ Wed, 04 Jul 2018 07:28:23 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=2327 The future International security paradigm Successfully deterring and defeating future threats to security depends…

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The future International security paradigm

Successfully deterring and defeating future threats to security depends on a candid and insightful assessment of international risk. The period out to 2040 is likely to see major changes in society and the physical environment resulting in a period of increased instability.

These changes will be driven by a number of factors – but the three most prescient will be climate change, globalisation and technological innovation. Predicting the future is never easy and catastrophic, unpredictable events, known by risk analysts as ‘strategic shocks’, will continue to happen, without warning. Who would have predicted the 9/11 attacks, the Arab Spring or the August riots? What, one must ask, does this mean for our future security and how should the security industry respond?

Perhaps firstly we need to assess the threat.

Future strategic shocks

The world’s population is set to see an increase from 6.9 billion people in 2010 up to around 8.8 billion by 2040. Some 65% will live in urban areas. Clearly competition for even the most basic resources such as energy, food and water will increase at all levels from the international to the local community. Social and political inequality, occurring between both individuals and groups will continue to fuel perceptions of injustice among those whose expectations are not met. This will increase tension and instability, both within and between societies and result in expressions of unrest such as disorder, violence, criminality, terrorism and, potentially, insurgency. The gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’ in society may widen and create new tensions, particularly, if the current turbulence in the international economy continues.

Social discontent

Civil disorder and disobedience is likely to grow. Single interest groups will continue to target areas about which they feel fervent dislike such as GM crops, abortion clinics and fur traders. Wider discontent with the capitalist system is likely to grow following scandals in the banks and mis-selling by other financial institutions. As our society becomes increasingly dependent upon ‘systems of electronic systems’ then we will all become more vulnerable to the failure of those systems – a recent banking software crash gave us a small taste of the possible effects.

As globalisation continues, the effects of such failures could be felt internationally. These networks are increasingly seen as a target by criminals and terrorist alike – why go to the trouble of planting a bomb when whole power grids or traffic control systems can be attacked remotely and whole areas isolated.

International threats

International organised crime may well already account for the loss of revenues approaching $3 trillion per annum. Just as criminals operate across international borders, the forces of law and order will also have to widen their horizons. Groups of migrant workers embedded in overseas societies will also internationalise local, cultural and religious issues through demonstration and direct action in their adopted nation. These groups will form fertile breeding grounds for organised criminal gangs and could even export tribal conflicts. Those private security providers who operate internationally will also have a role to play in sharing intelligence and information across their whole enterprise.

Consequences of technology developments

Technology will enable the development of cognitive science, sensors across the electromagnetic spectrum and robotics. This technological edge is likely to give the advantage to the forces of law and order in the first instance, enabling remote monitoring and targeted response if the investment capital is made available. Our alarm and detection systems will need to become multi-spectral if the confidence of the emergency services is to be maintained. Cyber crime however, will work to the criminal’s advantage and the sheer volume of attacks, whether state sponsored or orchestrated by other non-state actors, is already staggering.

Developments in social networking and the emergence of the ‘citizen journalist’ will have profound consequences for businesses, governments and the media alike.

Internationally, the chances of inter-state warfare are relatively low. The prospects of intra-state conflict are much higher.

Questions over Israel’s reaction to the continuing Iranian nuclear enrichment programme dominate the Middle East. Any disruption to oil supplies will have a knock on effect.

For a strategic overview looking far into the future, readers may wish to visit the Defence Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) website and browse their paper entitled Global Strategic Trends out to 2040 (Fourth Edition) which provided the inspiration for this article.

Jeff Little, OBE, Chief Executive, National Security Inspectorate (at time of writing)

www.nsi.org.uk

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Understanding security terminology https://citysecuritymagazine.com/risk-management/security-know-how-understanding-the-terminology/ Mon, 02 Jul 2018 14:02:40 +0000 https://citysecuritymagazine.com/?p=2138 A world of three letter Acronyms All industries have a lexicon of Three Letter…

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A world of three letter Acronyms

All industries have a lexicon of Three Letter Acronyms (TLAs). Until I joined the security industry, I imagined the military must hold the record for the number of such abbreviations – but I was wrong!

I remember sitting beside a general’s wife at a regimental ladies dinner night. She was lamenting the abbreviated language in which her husband conversed. She explained that he returned home that afternoon saying that he had been on a ‘TEWT’ and that she did not have the patience to ask what that was. I explained gently that a TEWT (pronounced TUUTE) was a Tactical Exercise Without Troops – whereby officers went onto a piece of ground and rehearsed how they would fight a battle over this particular bit of terrain. She was delighted and wrote this down in her note book for future reference.

I thought that we could now have some fun.

I told her that the police service had an equivalent known as a PEWC (pronounced ‘puke’) – or a ‘Police Exercise Without Constables’.

I also let slip that the army were planning some NEWDs (pronounced ‘nudes’) – or Night Exercises Without Darkness and finally that, due to defence cuts, our forces were being forced to undertake a series of Jungle Exercises Without Trees – or JEWTs, for short.

She avidly wrote this new information down and put it in her handbag. Inevitably I was summoned for an interview without coffee by her husband the following day, but it was well worth the telling off!

VUCA

One TLA, developed by none other than the US Army War College at Carlisle, Pennsylvania, caught my eye, namely VUCA.

The TLA is all about chaos, or how Time Magazine described the last 10 years as ‘the decade from Hell’.  It is about the pace and speed of change.  Changes, which may previously have taken years, may now be achieved in weeks.

VUCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. 

It describes the nature of our world today and applies equally to the business world as to defence and security:

V = Volatility.The nature, speed, magnitude, volume and dynamics of change, and change catalysts.

U = Uncertainty.The lack of predictability, the prospects for surprise, and the sense of awareness and understanding of complex issues and events.

C = Complexity.The multiplex of forces, the confounding of issues and the chaos and confusion that surround an organisation.

A = Ambiguity.The haziness of reality, the potential for misreads, and the mixed meanings of conditions; cause-and-effect confusion.

These four issues could be seen to represent the world in which contemporary institutions see their present and how they may predict their future. They could be seen as limits to both security planning and crisis management and the concept that once a crisis begins, it can rapidly escalate and run away, taking a course of its own given the catalyst of modern communications, media and social networks.

Modern conflict is often described as asymmetric and omni-directional – no longer do two armies face each other on a battlefield in two opposing straight lines – today the enemy can come from any direction and may take many forms.

Threats to business and security are equally unpredictable. Understanding this VUCA environment can be valuable to security professionals as it can form the basis for a style of management and leadership much needed in the current unpredictable climate.

Comprehension of the concept can provide a platform where anticipation, agility and the speed of response can enhance our reaction to incidents whilst also creating true competitive advantage in the hazardous business space of the 21st century. Security providers who are capable of driving their organisations through such complexity are those who will ultimately triumph in the new paradigm of the VUCA world. For most contemporary organisations – be they security, military, education or government, VUCA provides a practical code for awareness and readiness. Beyond the simple acronym is a body of knowledge that deals with learning models for VUCA preparedness, anticipation, evolution and intervention. Ironically, in a clever turn of words, the antidote to VUCA is VUCA too!

Dr. Bob Johansen of the Institute For The Future (IFTF) postulates that the solution to success in overcoming chaos comes from creating:

Vision– an intent seeking to create a clear future state.

Understanding– stop, look and listen to the characteristics at play.

Clarity– make sense of the chaos.

Agility– wirearchy (networking) is rewarded over hierarchy.

The leadership approaches Johansens recommends in VUCA situations include:

  • Flexible, decentralised, empowered networks     within a structure of strategic intent.
  • Learning through immersive experiences, scenarios and rapid prototyping.
  • Acceptance of uncertainty with intuition as a valid contributor to clarity.
  • Strategic sense-making beyond operational problem solving.
  • Uncoupling “winning” from the need for a solution.
  • Engagement with complexity.

Quite a lot to think about really. TTFN!

Jeff Little O.B.E. Chief Executive (at time of writing),  National Security Inspectorate

www.nsi.org.uk

 

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