The Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 and is likely to continue into 2023 and beyond. Here Philip Ingram, who had a long and senior career in British Military Intelligence, reviews the conflict to date and provides his insights into what might happen next.

Putin’s aim when he started his Special Military Operation in February was to topple the increasingly West-leaning Zelensky government. His secondary aim was to open a land bridge between Crimea, annexed in 2014, and Russia, via what has become known as the disputed Donbas Region.

With vastly superior troop numbers on paper, and different command structures, Putin launched his attacks and plucky Ukraine, war- hardened by eight years of fighting Russian backed separatists in the east and emboldened by Western training and weapons such as the UK’s NLAW anti-tank missile, defended.

Militarily, Russia was found wanting: their command and control was poor, their equipment unreliable, logistics and troop motivation close to non-existent. Their ability to conduct what are known as combined arms operations, fighting tanks, infantry, artillery, and airpower together, proved impossible, embarrassing many western analysts but embarrassing the Russian military and political leaderships more.

Ukraine defended its capital and government, giving ground in the east and south, trading space for time, and it used that time to defeat Russia’s main effort of capturing Kyiv. Ukraine continued to defend, forcing the Russians to pay a high price in equipment and personnel for every village captured in the south and east.

Ukraine used the time they gained to plan their counter offensives, to train on and deploy new western equipment, including longer- range NATO 155mm artillery and, of course, the infamous HIMARS missile systems.  Ukraine knew the Russian weak points, their logistic bases and their command headquarters and put the HIMARS missiles to good use destroying those whilst preparing their counter offensives.

Be under no illusion, Russia has lost every objective it has set itself in the conflict so far, and Putin is quickly trying to change his goalposts for something he can label

as success.

In late summer, Ukraine launched an attack towards Kherson in the south, using social media to suggest this was the expected main counter offensive. Russia rushed to reinforce its positions there, the bluff worked, and Ukraine launched its main attacks further north towards Kharkiv, recapturing 3,000 sq km in days, when it took the Russians months to gain the same territory.

The Ukrainian counter offensive has switched back to the Kherson area in the south as troops in the north secure the re-captured ground and wait their next move.

Putin’s response was to deliver the referendum on Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia joining Russia, with his pre-decided results, to mobilise 300,000 reservists and increase the economic war on the West by blowing up the NordStream 1 and 2 Gas pipelines. At the same time, he increased his nuclear threat rhetoric, hoping he could hold what he had till winter, allowing the 300,000 to be trained and equipped and deployed, but to what effect? Ukraine has already defeated Russia’s best units and troops; the reservists are merely more lambs to the slaughter.

He is pinning his hopes on Western support dissolving over a fuel crisis-filled winter in Europe with a nuclear threat hanging over the world. However, China and India have warned him to be careful. They still want Russian gas and oil but also want to keep some relationship with the West.

Underpinning where we are is the fact that Ukraine has the initiative on the ground and is giving the world a masterclass in combined arms operations. It will likely push the Russians much further back before winter sets in, recapturing more territory, further embarrassing Putin and stimulating unrest in Russia.

The issue with winter is three-fold. First, in the run up to winter the ground gets soft, making the use of armoured vehicles off road difficult and therefore favouring defensive operations (the Russians).

Second, the cold and its impact on less reliable military equipment, on personnel and morale, favouring those with the initiative (the Ukrainians); and third, the impact on an increasingly power-sapped Ukrainian people, as he targets power infrastructure. However, Ukrainian preparation and national resolve could triumph.

Putin, increasingly isolated, could then decide to use a tactical nuclear device, (not that any nuclear device is tactical in its effects outside the battlefield). He could try to send a message, ‘Negotiate and accept what I have captured, else the next one is on Kyiv, or Kherson.’ If he did, international condemnation would have to include China and India, for their sakes, and his isolation would be complete.

NATO and the West’s response would probably be conventional and against Russian troops in Ukraine, but once a foot has been placed on the nuclear escalation ladder, it can be climbed very quickly. We are entering the most dangerous phase of Putin’s folly.

However, there is much more for Ukraine to do before that decision point is reached and it is probable we will see the conflict continuing through 2023 and possibly beyond. Putin’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric and economic war against the international community will continue to escalate.

Philip Ingram MBE

Greyhare Media

www.greyharemedia.com

Read more articles from Philip Ingram here.

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However, there are a few trends those in the industry should be conscious of as the COVID-19 pandemic has shattered our traditional perception of ‘normal’.

As we live with empty offices and business districts, home working, reduced community visibility of the vulnerable, in an environment of increasing polarisation both political and around civil inspired causes, with increasing global instability with Russian and Chinese adventurism, terrorist threat morphing and hostile state and criminal networks opportunism, the threat landscape is changing.

Isolation and lockdown give terror groups increased opportunity to groom the vulnerable, to motivate and train them to have them working to a more coordinated agenda when things ease. They lack oversight in communities because of lockdown and isolation and that terror is not just islamist, but also extreme right wing. The terror threat is growing through exploited isolated vulnerable individuals lurking like a hidden cancer.

Home working is giving cyber criminals and advanced persistent cyber actors so many more opportunities to research and properly target attacks, to exploit vulnerabilities that would never exist in any single controlled network and to steal IP, compromise individuals and datasets. Malicious cyber actors will continue to have a field day though 2021 if remote working continues as the norm.

The legislative foundation for the wider security community will likely develop dramatically in 2021 with the anticipated Protect Duty, or Martyn’s Law, being introduced. We will also probably see something to replace or amend the 1990 Computer Misuse Act to make it 2021+ relevant and discussions around a new Official Secrets Act to bring it into the 21st century.

We can continue to say with confidence, we live in interesting times.

Philip Ingram MBE

Founder

Grey Hare Media

For further views on this topic, see related articles from our Police & Partnerships, Risk Management and Security Management categories, including:

Neil Moscrop, CIS Security on the new roles for security officers

Paul Dodds, Genetec on state-sponsored attacks

Stephen Emmins from HIKVISION on how the security function is evolving

David Mundell – 2021 the year of opportunity

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Luckily all of the events were short lived but the disruption for thousands of people was disconcerting. One thing in common between Heathrow, Euston Station, BA, the power generators and the national grid, is that they all started detailed investigations into what happened.

In June, the BBC reported, “Russia has said it is “possible” that its electrical grid is under cyber-attack by the US.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said to the NY Times.  That same month Wired reported, “Over the past several months, security analysts at the Electric Information Sharing and Analysis Centre (E-ISAC) and the critical-infrastructure security firm Dragos have been tracking a group of sophisticated hackers carrying out broad scans of dozens of US power grid targets.” Those sophisticated hackers were allegedly linked to the Russian Government.

In December 2018, Gatwick Airport was closed for 36 hours through, according to Superintendent Justin Burtenshaw the commander of the police force at Gatwick, “multiple simultaneous drone incursions.” This was just after a very sophisticated cyber-attack on the airport.

The power outage incident was assessed as not cyber related, by the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), and they added, “the Heathrow Baggage, BA check in and Euston signalling issues were not, as we are aware caused by cyber incidents.”  They then said, “we have not attributed blame for the Gatwick incident yet.”

The incidents described suggest a pattern and any developing pattern warrants further investigation to see if they are linked or more likely are a series of unrelated one-off incidents.

The one thing that is clear is that internal investigations trying to get to the bottom of the causes of the various incidents have the possibility that they could identify some form of negligent or possibly malicious activity.  The question is where the investigation should start and where could it end up.  The power outages investigation will start with the national grid, include the companies running the generators who will likely need to run their own but could, in the unlikely event, the outage was through malicious activity need to be passed to the police or if it were through human error, lead to HR action that may be tested at an employment tribunal.

“The credibility of any investigation is based on the integrity of the evidence, the audit trail and the ability to retain all of the relevant data in a complex digital age. These are the basics any court, tribunal or regulatory body will require,” says Mick Creedon, the former Chief Constable of the Derbyshire Constabulary and no stranger to complex investigations. “I am very impressed with the way Altia-ABM Smartcase allows disparate elements of complex investigations, whatever their origin or subject, to be brought together in a way that meets the highest standards of data integrity,” he added.

Hopefully Smartcase is being used throughout the investigations into the infrastructure issues. I have no doubt they will result in some form of action that could be challenged legally.

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The responsibility for investigating Serious and Organised Crime in the UK lies with the National Crime Agency (NCA) and the responsibility for investigating acts of terrorism lies with the Security Services and the Metropolitan Police Counter Terror unit.  So, who has responsibility for investigating the funding of terror through serious and organised crime? The answer is it lies with both sides, and, if it is a major terror incident, the co-ordination and lead is with the MET, always.

Funding Islamic Extremism

One of the ways Islamic extremism is funded is kidnap and ransom.  Aimen Dean, an ex-British Spy who was in Al-Qaeda for 10 years, says, “As long as there are governments and corporations willing to pay ransom money to terrorists, then the cycle of terror will continue unabated. It is the dilemma facing many employers and governments alike: do they let their citizens die and lose face in front of their respective constituencies, or do they pay millions in ransom to the kidnappers and end up, unwittingly, financing global terrorism?”

Northern Ireland-related Terrorism

However, terror funding a little closer to home throws up a worrying statistic. The New IRA, who have admitted the killing of journalist Lyra McKee during protests in Londonderry, were formed in 2012 following a merger between groups including the Real IRA and Republican Action Against Drugs (RAAD), which was predominantly active in the northwest of Northern Ireland, but with a presence in some other republican strongholds across the province.

The Real IRA was listed by Forbes Israel in 2014 as the ninth richest terror group in the world, sandwiched between Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram with a £32 million annual turnover. This money comes from extortion, smuggling, drug running, robbery and other organised criminal activities. These activities will have been taken over by the New IRA who have largely the same leadership. The link between serious and organised crime and terror couldn’t be clearer.

Right-wing groups

Coming even closer to home, National Action, Scottish Dawn and NS131 are all recently proscribed extreme right-wing groups in Great Britain, their funding comes from somewhere and that somewhere is most likely to be extortion, unscrupulous websites and car boot supplied counterfeit cigarettes, CDs and DVDs, illegally imported booze, drug supply and prostitution.

Follow the money

Putting this into context with activities that we could all easily come across: the counterfeited CDs and DVDs at the local car boot; the knock-off cigarettes and tobacco being supplied through unscrupulous websites; the cheap diesel that has come from filtered red diesel; the extortion money through ransomware or good old fashioned protection rackets; the massage parlours taxing the trafficked prostitutes; all of these activities have links to organised crime and, with many, it would be ‘reasonable to suspect’ that some of the organised crime gangs have links to terrorist organisations or individuals with terrorist links.

Reasonable to suspect funding

It is establishing that ‘reasonable to suspect’ funding could be from a proscribed organisation that takes any investigation into the realms of the Terrorism Act.  It is vital that the highest standards are applied in any and all investigative processes and this is merely one reason why.

Software solution to support investigations

So, when it comes to investigating suspected criminal activity or HR issues that may have an element of criminal activity, it is essential that the standards applied are consistent.  Of note, the software company Altia-ABM have launched smartcase, a tool set used by police forces and now available to commercial entities for any form of investigation. The ability to keep investigative standards at the highest levels and to be able to seamlessly hand over investigative materials when appropriate is critical to successful prosecutions, especially in these times of police cuts.

Philip Ingram, MBE

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Increasingly private sector companies are having to carry out commercial investigations that could be scrutinised by the courts, these could be health and safety, HR related or GDPR.  Some companies have robust investigative policies and procedures, and some don’t. It is the latter that can find themselves embarrassed in court and that embarrassment often comes with a hefty price. Things get more complex if investigations need to be handed over to the police.

“I’ve learnt over many years that the credibility of any investigation is based on the integrity of the evidence, the audit trail and the ability to retain all of the relevant data in a complex digital age. These are the basics any court, tribunal or regulatory body will require,” says Mick Creedon, the former Chief Constable of the Derbyshire Constabulary having retired after 10 years in the post in 2017.

The need for greater public private cooperation in commercial investigations

The pressures on the police are widely reported and it is unlikely that they will ease in any significant way no matter what government is in power. The police therefore have recognised the need for greater public private cooperation. Recognising the potential benefits to the private sector of having capabilities that can integrate with police needs, is the next step.

Mick added, “The Police are traditionally very good at working in partnership with other public bodies such as HMRC or the NCA, however the reality is they have never properly harnessed the opportunity of working in a similar way with the private sector and understanding the extensive investigative techniques, resources and powers.  Often both sides are dealing with the same problems and offenders, and with better joined up working and appropriate sharing of intelligence coupled with investigations to the right evidential standards, the benefit can be mutual and the problem solving shared.”

Employer Supported Policing Scheme

The MET Police and some larger businesses are seeing the need for greater cooperation. A scheme called the Employer Supported Policing Scheme continues to be rolled out. Commander Dave Musker, Frontline Policing said: “The Employer Supported Policing Scheme is a powerful partnership between, businesses and the Met. The scheme benefits employers, their staff and the police service by releasing Special Constables to volunteer in the communities they serve. This is something which directly contributes to making London safer and provides businesses with a unique opportunity to play their part.

However, that is the provision of people, integration of the investigation process is another potential aid to better cooperation especially if it allows that integrity of the evidence, the audit trail and data retention Mick talked about and stop the police from having to start at the beginning of any investigation.

Software solution smartcase from Altia-ABM

Altia-ABM already have software supporting every police force across the UK and have just launched smartcase aimed at enabling commercial investigations on any subject with the ability to meet the exacting standards required of police investigations.

Mick Creedon had a look at its utility. “Having investigated all types of criminality and from the perspective of a former investigator, I am very impressed with the way smartcase allows disparate elements of complex investigations, whatever their origin or subject, to be brought together in a way that meets the highest standards of data integrity. It’s also simple to use and, importantly, flexible to meet the differing requirements of a wide range of clients.”

This is another step on the complex road of taking the need for greater cooperation and enabling it through innovative software. To learn more about smartcase, visit altia-abm.com.

Philip Ingram MBE

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Like anything trying to look at dealing with how best to support the security sector with evolving risks and threats, we need to understand what they are.

Understanding the threats

The ‘traditional’ threats from criminal behaviour will likely continue the downward trend Joe Traynor from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) described in the latest Crime Survey for England and Wales, when he wrote:

“Over recent decades, we’ve seen continued falls in overall levels of crime but in the last year the trend has been more stable. The latest figures show no change in the total level of crime but variation by crime types.”

Evolving Threats

Then we get the more complex threats including cyber and terrorism; there is an inevitability that these will continue to evolve in the way we have seen them do so over the past few years. Several factors will influence this through 2019.

The first factor is the dreaded BREXIT and the effect this may have on the ability for security organisations to share and get information and intelligence to and from the rest of Europe. However, the UK is more of a net contributor to the overall European threat picture as opposed to net user, so there is a real urgency for European agencies to maintain the UK’s access.

Slightly more worrying is the impact BREXIT may have on Irish Republican terrorism. In 2016/17 Northern Ireland saw 8 murders, 55 bombs, 113 shootings, 80 guns recovered, 53kg of explosives recovered and 244 terror- related arrests. The trend over the 20 years since the Good Friday Agreement was signed is similar and averages out as approximately one terror-related event every four days. This is almost wholly Northern Ireland focused, with the threat level to Great Britain set as Moderate. However, any increase in terror activity in Northern Ireland because of post- BREXIT border issues carries the potential for that to spill across the Irish Sea.

2018 has highlighted three ‘new’ risk areas that are likely to continue through 2019. These are information and data as a weapon, the ‘return’ of hostile intelligence agencies as a recognised threat, and the potential for further use of chemical, biological or radiological weapons.

What can event providers do to support the security sector?

All event providers can do is provide a platform that allows all of the issues the security industry is facing to be discussed, so that best practice can be outlined, and shared, new and existing technologies introduced so end users can assess the most appropriate solution for the risks they need to mitigate, the latest regulations outlined and as important as all of that, people can put names to faces and meet. Security is a people process and built on personal relationships as much as technology and processes.

Peter Jones, CEO of Nineteen Events who deliver the International Security Expo, describes his approach: “As an event organiser I am not and can never be a security expert, but my team and I take the view we want to make a difference and add value so we can help make the world a little safer for our families. It is that philosophy that drives us to deliver the best event we can, and an integral part of my team is my 40+ strong advisory council of high-level security experts and practitioners.

“We focus on the latest relevant content, getting senior officials and decision makers to the event and providing the platform for best practice and ideas to be shared. It’s adding value that lets me sleep more secure but also encourages the exhibitors and visitor we need to have a successful event.”

The Nineteen Events approach sums up the best way event providers can support the security industry. People, platform and content all working together, but it’s getting the right people, the right content and a progressive platform all together at the right time. The focus must be on adding value to all attendees.

Philip Ingram MBE BSc MA. Journalist

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We have been lucky in 2018 after the terror that tore across Europe and the UK in 2016 – 2017 with vehicle, knife and bomb attacks happening in Nice, London Bridge, Westminster, Manchester and Barcelona.  These are just a few of the places left reeling from a wave of extremism targeting people going about their normal lives and enjoying themselves.  The often crudeness of the weaponry used belies the sophistication of many of the attacks.

2018 has been successful for the security services with a number of attacks being stopped, but the UK Counter Terror Police continue to remind everyone that they have approximately 600 active investigations going on with over 3000 people of immediate concern and another 20,000 on their radar!

State-Blamed attacks

2017 was marked by some of the most virulent global cyber-attacks with Wannacry infecting more than 230,000 computers in over 150 countries disabling parts of the UK’s health care in the NHS, the Spanish Telecoms giant, Telefonica and FedEx.  North Korea was blamed for this incident.

In another state blamed attack, Russia was blamed for unleashing the NotPetya attack on the globe which hit many government systems in the Ukraine and elsewhere but had a massive impact on global logistics with the shipping giant Maersk falling victim and having to shut down its terminals in 4 different countries for a number of weeks costing the company an estimated $200 million in losses.

In addition, whilst not a terror attack, we saw the first use of the colourless, odourless, virtually undetectable nerve agent Novichok, used on the streets of the small, sleepy English city of Salisbury. The attack, against a former Russian intelligence officer who defected to the West, Sergei Skripal, resulted in 7 people being contaminated and one dying.  The British government quickly blamed the Russians and the international community followed suit.

GDPR impact

2018 has seen a development of the threat environment with the introduction of the European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) meaning that data breaches could well have huge implications for companies that suffer them with a €20 Million or 4% or global annual turnover fine brining additional focus to the cyber security environment.

Terror videos and propaganda

At the same time, ISIS and Al Qaeda terror videos and propaganda were advocating the use of drones against crowded places, during the FIFA World Cup in Russia an ISIS propaganda video was released in which the terrorist group claim that they would attack with drone bombs. The recipe and design for chemical weapons and chemical dispersion devices is freely available in the extremist circles according to Aimen Dean, a former MI6 spy inside Al Qaeda in his book ‘Nine Lives.’

Keeping up-to-date with Countering Terrorism in 2018

Andrew Parker the Director General of MI5 said in May this year that, “Europe faces an intense, unrelenting and multidimensional international terrorist threat. Daesh continues to pose the most acute threat, but Al-Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist groups haven’ gone away.”

Keeping abreast of the threats, the countermeasures, the developing technologies, having a platform to discuss and share best practice is always a challenge for the security community.  This is where Peter Jones, the CEO of Nineteen Events comes in.  He recently said in a blog, “all I want to do, with my team, is something to help make it a little less chaotic and bring the chance of a little more safety and security. If I can do that, then it is all worth it and will leave the world a little better for my loved ones!”  This is his mantra behind the International Security Expo.

What many don’t realise is a big part of his team consists of 40 Advisory Council members who come from all aspects of the security community including Government, Industry & Academia, all at senior levels and they assist in the development of International Security Expo and help shape the content to attract the highest calibre visitors.

That content is delivered in 12 free to attend conferences held over the 2 days and these conferences include: Retail, Hotel, Education, Maritime and Transport, CNI, Crisis Response and Business Continuity, Protecting Crowded Places, Night-time economy, Designing Out Terrorism, Cyber, Data and Information Security, Aviation and Border security and finally Facilities Management security.  Some of the speakers come from the Advisory Council but many are industry leaders in these spheres and are not generally on many conference circuits.

The International Security Expo provides a unique platform for the entire security industry to come together to source products, share experience and gain the knowledge needed to address current and emerging security challenges. It and all of the conferences are free-to-attend and unite the entire security community allowing shared learning and collaboration from Government, CNI, Law Enforcement, Military, Major Events, Transport & Borders, Cyber Security, Facilities and Public and Private sectors.

A key theme running through the two days of the expo is that of innovation and many new technologies will be on display, ranging from a cost effective British built drone with thermal and optical zoom cameras that has a flight time of an hour, to the Protecting Urban Spaces feature.  This new immersive demonstration area will showcase physical products, technologies and have live scenarios to illustrate how urban spaces can be protected from mass casualty terrorist attacks.

Given its ambition, the UK Government has come on board in strength and forms the core of the Government Agency and Department zone. The USA, Canada, China and the EU all have their own zones but it is expected that representatives from over 50 countries across the globe will attend the event. In fact, over 12,500 are confidently expected to attend over the 2 days, the networking alone will be amazing.

With the rapidly changing threat landscape the one place to come for 2 days to be brought up to speed with everything that is needed, is the International Security Expo. This is one not to miss. Visit internationalsecurityexpo.com for further details and register to attend the free conference series.

Philip Ingram MBE

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Salisbury and its surrounding villages have been in the news for not just the first use of a deadly nerve agent on British soil, but the first use of a Novichok agent anywhere.  Luckily this deadly, virtually undetectable substance wasn’t used in the crowded metropolis of London or one of our other major cities.

Policing the cordons

More than 1,200 police officers from across the country assisted with the cordons in Salisbury as they were needed to secure the areas suspected of contamination. In June, almost four months after the initial attack, a decision was made to replace many of the police officers with security staff.

A Defra spokesperson said to a local Salisbury newspaper: “As of 4 June, security guards will start to replace the police officers deployed at some of the cordoned sites around Salisbury, where clean-up work is taking place. This is to allow local police officers and those who have volunteered from around the country to return to their normal duties.”

Partnership working well

Visiting Salisbury, I found that the police, private security partnership was working very well and the professionalism of everyone was reflected in the engagement and respect shown by the local people. This could be the start of a model for greater public private cooperation. However, one common worrying thread existed with both police and security staff awareness. Briefings on what Novichok was, how nerve agents worked, was scarce. “We have to rely on our ex-military training,” was one comment.

Briefing for new threats?

However, if we look at where Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia collapsed from the effects of Novichok, or where they could have collapsed, it could easily have been an SIA-licensed security guard who was first on the scene. Now we have security guards protecting sites potentially contaminated with deadly nerve agents, the question has to be asked, “is it now time for more novel threats to be briefed to all licensed staff and should this be part of a continuous training regime?”

Fraser Kennedy, Director of Mitigation and Training with London-based Ultimate Security, said, “A clear and concise overview of how to identify the effects of a nerve agent at the earliest opportunity would be warmly welcomed. Couple this with what to do in such an event to help protect oneself and others and I think we would have a very useful training resource. It’s important not to ‘scaremonger’ and this may well be an isolated incident, but we will be increasing our staff’s awareness just to be on the safe side.”

With the disruption in Salisbury and nine miles away in Amesbury contained to relatively small areas, the policing and security bill is enormous. Were something similar to happen in any of our major cities, the impact could be huge.

The International Security Expo at Olympia in November this year will be examining emerging threats across our cities, our Critical National Infrastructure, impacting the economy and much more. I am bringing some of the conferences together and am confident they will allow training, public private partnerships and novel threats all to be debated in context.

With the terror attacks of last year, a nerve agent attack this year, numerous terror attacks disrupted, Counter Terror police closely monitoring 600+ threats, and Brexit scaremongering, the need for even greater public private cooperation seems an absolute must. All of these will be key elements in and around the November event.

Philip Ingram, MBE

Visit internationalsecurityexpo.com for further details and register to attend the free conference series.

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We must refer to them as non-paying customers.

This is the directive from the head of one of the UK’s large homeware retail chains and the sentiment within the statement dictates their approach to security.

Nick Fisher, the newly appointed CEO of Facewatch, said: “Our work with businesses is showing that just ten per cent of low-level crime is reported and only five per cent is solved, which means that businesses of all sizes are paying a high price for rising petty criminal activity, and there is growing apathy among victims.” he added.

In an internal memo for one large retail organisation, their security staff have been told to stop the use of the Civil Recovery Process against shoplifters as “the income derived from the process outweighs the direct cost incurred”. Their policy is to “deter shoplifters through active, polite and friendly customer service”.

Shoplifting is not the only problem

However, according to the BRC report, it is not just shoplifting that is affecting the retail sector. Violence and abuse against retail staff is up 40 per cent from last year’s figures and this is a major area of concern.

Shoplifting and potential violence are only two of the issues affecting the retail environment. Over 5 per cent of the losses in the UK, some £36 million of costs were associated with cybercrime. This, according to the British Retail Consortium’s cyber tool kit, was the result of 5.8 million fraud and computer misuse incidents. And when related to cybercrime overall, the Centre for Risk Studies say it represents 4 per cent of all UK cybercrime.

Bridging the cyber, shoplifter gap in retail crime is the insider threat.  In a recent interview with a newly appointed retail store manager, she said, “In every store I have ever worked in there is always a member of staff ‘on the fiddle’, and if you think it isn’t happening, it just means you haven’t caught them yet.”

29 per cent of retailers reported that their business had seen an increase in malicious insider incidents in the past two years.

All respondents suffered theft by employees in 2015-16. Additionally, there was a notable rise in cyber-related criminality at the hands of employees, suppliers, contractors or others with inside access.

Terrorist threat

The final threat to retail security is the terrorist threat. Brought into sharp focus by the 2013 siege in the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, we then had the 2015 siege in the Hyper Cacher supermarket in Paris. In London, Mohammed Rehman and his wife were arrested for planning an attack on either a London shopping centre or the Tube.

This year there were two arrested for planning an attack on a shopping centre in the German city of Essen and then we had the horrific truck attack along a shopping street in Stockholm before it swerved into Sweden’s largest department store, Åhléns City.

Retail is at the front edge of the terrorist threat.

Philip Ingram

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